So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - December 10, 2023 - December 16, 2023

October's Deal Volume Was the Lowest This Year
Deal volume amounted to just $18.3 billion for October – 68% below the figure for October 2022

Prediction: Multifamily Distress Will Start in H2 2024
Given market dynamics, it seems impossible to put off forever.

Apartment Owners Prioritizing Occupancy Over Rent
Oversupply challenges should be short-lived.

Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Rise A Third Month in a Row
Lenders with the most aggressive underwriting standards are seeing slightly higher delinquency rates.

Green Street: CRE Prices May Have Hit Bottom
Over the past 12 months, all but one property type tracked by Green Street posted single- or double-digit declines in pricing. 

Study: Americans Spent An Average Of $13k On Home Repairs And Renovations This Year
Lenders with the most aggressive underwriting standards are seeing slightly higher delinquency rates.

Fewer Renters Trading Out for Single-Family Homes
The floundering single-family home sales performance is keeping more residents in their apartments,

U.S. CMBS Market Faces a Challenging 2024
High interest rates will make refinancing difficult and limit leverage on new deals.

Rent Surge Ahead: USC Report Predicts Increases Across SoCal Counties
Rents in the Southern California area are expected to increase by two to four percent, as per a University of Southern California (USC) report.

Multifamily Fundamentals Are Strong In 2024, Despite Uncertainties
The 2024 apartment market forecasts are in and despite twists, turns and uncertainties, multifamily fundamentals are strong.

Investors Shy Away From LA Apartment Market In Doldrums
Multifamily deals fall 77% as metro faces “the full brunt of the economic slowdown”

Industrial and Multifamily Sectors Face Challenges, Slowdown
Industrial space net growth is significantly down and multifamily development outpaces demand.

How CRE Fared in 2023's Non-Recession
It was widely believed that the US would be in a recession by now, but that is not the case – it’s one of several 2023 forecasts that didn’t play out exactly how many thought it would.

Mortgage Credit Availability Down In November
Credit availability in November declined to its lowest level in four months, driven by reduced offerings of non-QM and jumbo loan programs.

NMHC: Higher Interest Rates Remain a Risk to Multifamily Sector 
So long as headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target, interest rates are likely to remain elevated, posing some risk to the apartment industry both directly and indirectly.

2024 Apartment Forecast Remains Strong Despite Twists
Moody's 2024 forecast predicts a challenging year for commercial real estate financing, with high interest rates impacting the CMBS market.

Experts Weigh In on Fed’s Rate Hike Pause as 2023 Winds to a Close
In the last meeting of the year, the central bank has maintained a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent.

Apartment Rents Post Biggest Drop Since Pandemic
Landlords are also granting significant concessions.

The Nightmare Scenario For CRE Bank Loans
A combination of CRE refinancing potential and a 2016 change in accounting rules could deeply wound banks during a recession.

A Cooling US Economy Points To Swifter Rate Cut
Jobs market is cooling, not collapsing. Inflation pressures are moderating more broadly. Spending is holding up, but the outlook is deteriorating.

Southern California Home Prices Fell Last Month. Don’t Expect Them To Plunge
Southern California home prices dipped from October to November, the first decline in nine months.

Class-A Multifamily Rents Might Not Stabilize Until 2025, Analysis Finds
Rents at the priciest apartments across the country are likely to decline through next year before growing again in 2025.

2024 Trends to Watch in Real Assets
Investors will be hoping for a better 2024, where we find a floor in pricing that will return the market to more-normal levels of activity.

CMBS Apartment Loans Going To Servicing Rise 12 Basis Points
However, Trepp said delinquencies fell during the month, and CRED iQ reported an overall decline in apartment distress.

The Fed Watcher Who Called The 2007 Housing Bubble Expects Interest Rates To Stay High For ‘Much, Much, Much Longer.’
It’s Payback For The Unsustainable ‘Free Money Era’

Refinances Fuel Uptick In Mortgage Application Activity
Borrowers who had seen rates near 8% earlier this fall are now seeing some lenders quote rates below 7%.